Mindful: Attentive, Aware, Conscious, Thoughtful, Alert.
Miscellany: A collection of various items, parts, or ingredients, especially one composed of diverse literary works.
Welcome to A Mindful Miscellany, a newsletter dedicated to finding Signal in the Turbulent Twenties.
Israel
It’s difficult to separate emotion from analysis, particularly when you know people in the fight there.
Many of us got into the defense business to be a shield, to protect those who seek to live their lives in peace. To keep chaos at bay.
When you put all the arguments and grievances aside, one side is purposefully targeting non-combatants, and the other is not.
Coverage by the Free Press here. From the article:
“More than 700 Israelis have been killed and more than 2,100 wounded in a series of coordinated surprise attacks that occurred inside Israel. The attacks began on the morning of Saturday, October 7. That’s when, according to an IDF spokesman, some 1,000 Hamas terrorists crossed the internationally recognized border between Gaza and Israel and began massacring civilians in at least 14 Israeli towns and communities, entering homes and apartments and killing men, women, and children—including nearly 300 young people who were attending a rave in the desert.
The scenes of horror and bloodshed that resulted, including the murders of entire families, the kidnapping of small children, and rapes of young women, were seemingly intended to cause maximum anger and shock inside Israel. More than 150 people were seized by the terrorists and taken back into Gaza, where they are being held hostage. They include women, very young children, and the elderly.
To give a sense of the scale of these attacks, 700 dead in a country of 9.3 million people (where everyone knows someone’s cousin) is the equivalent of a terror attack on America in which over 25,000 people were brutally murdered. And not in a single catastrophe: imagine 25,000 Americans killed in various murder sprees across the country.”
Black Swans and Gray Rhinos. Former Army officer and narrative expert Brian Steed makes the point this attack is not a “Black Swan” but rather a “Gray Rhino.” In Nassim Taleb’s definition, a Black Swan is a surprise to the observer, has major effects, is the first recorded instance of event, and in hindsight is understandable. A “Gray Rhino” (Book by Michelle Wucker), on the other hand, is an event that has a major effect, but is something known and previously considered. A pandemic, water scarcity, or disruptive technologies are examples of Gray Rhinos. We can still be surprised by Gray Rhinos— it seems to happen all the time.
Bottom line— The next chapter of this conflict is just getting started, and will have significant impacts to the rest of the world. As Steed notes, we need to watch what Hezbollah and Iran do right now, to understand how much.
It is too early to tell, but this will likely represent a phase shift in relations between Israel and Palestinians.
P.S. In case it’s not abundantly clear, drones are here and will continue to change the game on all levels. They’re economical, disposable, and keep the operator in safety. The widespread use of small, tactical-level drones are a Gray Rhino coming out of Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, and this current conflict in Israel.
Notes from the Grail Diary
“So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart.
Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours.
Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life.
Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people.
Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide.
Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place.
Show respect to all people and grovel to none.
When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living.
If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself.
Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision.
When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way.
Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.”
—Attributed to Shawnee Chief Tecumseh
Metacrisis
New Podcast— Entangled World with Najia Lupson Shaukat. This is a concise introduction to the topic. Najia breaks out the terminology differences (Meta/Poly/Perma), some of the main crises (Economic, Environmental, Energy, Political, Social, Psychological, Epistemological, Technological), the systemic drivers (Perverse incentives, Market Externalities, Group Coordination Problems), the attractor points (Disorder, Dystopia) the world is moving towards, as well as recommendations to move towards a third attractor of Global Cooperation.
Never mind. I see it. Thank you
Adam, some day this will be reflected as a major shift.....I fear the rath from Bebe and bemoan the unfathomable massacres which are but a whisper to what the future holds.