The Watchman's Rattle

Meeting Complexity with Insight-A Mindful Miscellany #37

“I have never heard a sound beating the air, so fraught with the spirit of trouble and need of assistance, as the sharp crack of the watchman’s rattle reverberating in the street at the dead hour of night.”— Edward H. Savage, 1865

Welcome to A Mindful Miscellany, a newsletter dedicated to Good Humaning in the Turbulent Twenties. My name is Adam Karaoguz (car-owz). I am a 27 year prior-enlisted US Naval Special Warfare officer. I’m also a fiction novelist on submission with D4EO literary. Extended bio located here.

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front, for all you non-military folk, the military equivalent of TL:DR- Too Long: Didn’t Read):  Written in 2010 by sociobiologist, businesswoman, and futurist Rebecca Costa, the main premise of the book is that the accelerating complexity of the modern age is outstripping our cognitive capability to deal with it. As Taylor Swift famously said, a problem well-stated is half solved.¹ Costa is not a hipster, but she was talking memes way before it was cool. Appreciating our current context and some of humankind’s instinctive responses will help us meet the moment with holistic, wisdom-informed responses. And just look at this sweet blurb from E.O. Wilson!

1.      A Pattern of Complexity and Collapse: Why Civilizations Spiral

• Life is getting complicated.  Case studies of the Mayans, Romans, Khymer, Ming, and Byzantine Empires reveal the causes of their collapse.  According to Costa, these empires failed because they reached their cognitive threshold.

• The uneven rate of change between the slow evolution of human biology and the rapid rate at which societies advance eventually causes progress to come to a standstill. 

• According to Costa, the first sign of this is gridlock. The second is the substitution of beliefs for facts and knowledge.  Human society has always needed both beliefs (opinions) and knowledge (facts) to advance.  When both of these conditions are met, you can see that a society is approaching the cognitive threshold.

• Successful temporary mitigation of complex problems can be dangerous because it can be confused with a permanent cure as soon as the short-term symptoms of the problem abate. Also, we are much more proficient at responding to acute, immediate problems, than diffuse, long-term problems (Connects to the concept of “Wicked Problems.”) Summarizer’s note: Let’s try not think about them as problems. Let’s think about them as “the hand we’ve been dealt” for this time period— challenges to meet rather than problems to solve. It’s giving me a pedantic vibe to even type this, but problems imply solutions. There are no perfect solutions, just poisons to pick between.

Source

2.     Evolution’s Gift: A breakthrough in Neuroscience

• There are three ways that humans solve problems: A. Organized, deconstructive analysis, B. Creative synthesis, and C. Insight, a subconsciously driven process that is still little understood. (I am wondering how her concept of Insight relates to Abduction.)

• When we’re stuck, there are 3 possibilities: A. We don’t have the resources, information, or time needed to solve the problem. B. We’ve reached a biological limit to what the brain is capable of. C. A way forward does not exist.

•   Environment and Social conditions have combined to cause a rapid (four to five million years) evolution of the frontal cortex of the brain, the location responsible for processing complexity.  Insight is an evolutionary response to complexity.

3.     The Sovereignty of Super memes: The Power of Beliefs

• A meme is any widely accepted behavior, piece of information, thought, or feeling.  Memes can be common sense, traditions, theories, biases, or slogans.  “Don’t run with scissors,” “No swimming after you eat.”

• The study of memes is called memetics, and provides a framework for understanding how culture, knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors spread until they become an accepted way of life.  Like genes, through variation and mutation, and inheritance, memes increase or decrease their reproductive success as they migrate from one human to the next. With each generation, some become stronger, weaker, or extinct. A super meme is one of these that become so pervasive that it contaminates or suppresses all other beliefs and behaviors in a society.

• These super memes are a human response to complexity, valuable heuristics to fall back upon. 

• Our vulnerability to these beliefs grows greater as our ability to acquire knowledge decreases.  When faced with overwhelming complexity, our brain is susceptible to unproven ideologies and “herd” mentality.

• A variety of memes is good (diversity) for a society’s resilience.  Super memes endanger humanity by “putting all our eggs in one (or few) basket (s)” so to speak.

4.     Irrational Opposition: The First Super meme

• Irrational opposition occurs when the act of rejecting, criticizing, suppressing, ignoring, misrepresenting, marginalizing, and resisting rational solutions becomes the accepted norm.

• Framing: When we are presented with two choices, we often choose the less objectionable option, which becomes a decision by default.

• When faced with complexity, our first response is to retreat to the familiar, even if the familiar means failing.  In addition, we react with fear.

• The marginalization of innovative thinking and solutions represents one of the most dangerous effects of the oppositional super meme.  The more we oppose, the more we hinder the development of insight.

5.     The Personalization of Blame: The Second Super meme

• This meme is defined as the foisting of responsibility of complex problems onto the shoulder of individuals whenever they persist.

• We have not developed an efficient process for thinking about and solving complex problems.

• There are broad, systemic structural issues at play, yet the conventional wisdom is that we are at fault for our individual problems. Example: Man’s inbred instinct to consume calories, obesity epidemic. (Connects to the timeless argument of individual vs. society— “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” vs. “It’s the system man, the system is keeping us down.” The same argument Hari highlights in Stolen Focus by comparing Tristan Harris vs. Nir Eyal perspectives.)

6.     Counterfeit Correlation: The Third Super meme

• Counterfeit Correlation occurs when we:

            -Accept correlation as a substitute for causation

            -Use reverse engineering to manipulate evidence

            -Rely on consensus to determine facts

• As the world begins to become more complex, we lower our standard for proof.

• Although quick correlation may be attractive, it does little to unravel the complex, interlaced causes of the problems that humankind must solve.

• Reverse engineering is used to create a “storyline” to explain events, a story that may be filled with errors and fallacious reasoning.

• Without a firm grip on the facts, lose our ability to determine what is at the root of our biggest threats.  So we simply begin accepting beliefs in lieu of knowledge.

7.     Silo Thinking: The Fourth Super meme

• Silo Thinking: Compartmentalized thinking and behaviors that prohibit the collaboration needed to address complex problems.

• Example:  Three Kluges- Hospitals, Doctors (Primarily ER Doctors), and Insurance Companies.  Poor communication of medical conditions and information between the three groups.

• Silo Thinking makes it difficult to fix a systemic problem because no one silo is responsible for the overall problem.

• The problem of Silos is a natural extension of human territorial instincts.  It is not technology that gets in the way of innovation- it is humans and the organizations that we live in that are both stubbornly resistant to experimentation and change.

8.     Extreme Economics: The Fifth Super meme

• Extreme Economics occurs when simple principles in business, such as risk/reward and profit/loss become a litmus test for determining the values of people and priorities, initiatives and institutions. 

• Profitability has become the most powerful barometer of legitimacy. 

• Typical human thought process when faced with a problem:

            -Capitalization: How much will this cost?

            -Risk: What’s the probability the venture will fail, and how much will that cost?

            -Return on Investment: Is this the best I can get for my money?

            -Leverage: Will this investment lead to achieving other goals?

• The danger is that economic considerations now overwhelm other values to such an extent that they now have the power to decide how and if humankind’s greatest threats will be solved.

• This gravitation to Extreme Economics is a natural evolutionary byproduct of the need to maximize resources for survival and advantage.

• Conflict in the Middle East is between two Super memes- A religious one (Islamic) vs. a financial one (The West).

• When beliefs (Religious or Financial) overwhelm rational knowledge, there can be no rational outcome.

9.     Surmounting the Super memes: Rational solutions in an Irrational World

• Example- Muhammad Yunis and micro lending.  He had to overcome all five super memes to perfect and popularize micro-finance.

10.   Awareness and Action: A Tactical Approach

• Civilizations thrive when they pursue both beliefs and knowledge, side by side, in a healthy mix.

• When gridlock is reached, belief takes the place of knowledge. We must outmaneuver gridlock. But how?  Make a short-term plan to buy time and space (Mitigation), and then put long-term cures into place.

Why does mitigation fail? 

            -It becomes confused with a cure.

            -It removes the sense of urgency to solve the problem.

            -Individual mitigations prevent systemic problems from being solved in a systemic way.

            -It is not sustainable.

            -It is a serial approach to improvement: one fingers in the dike when there are ten holes.

• What is needed is parallel incrementalism- an all of the above approach that throws multiple solutions at the problem to find the critical ones that will be most effective.  “All Hands on Deck.”

• Venture Capitalism is a good example of parallel incrementalism. Parallel incrementalism succeeds because it forces mitigations to address the systemic issues rather than treat individual symptoms.

• When a civilization is faced with indiscernible complexity, progress is dependent on the amount of wasted effort and resources the civilization is willing to tolerate.

• Antidotes to Collapse:

-Restore the balance between beliefs and knowledge.  When society elevates the pursuit of knowledge, it counteracts the encroachment of beliefs and inoculates a civilization against super memes.  Think of facts and knowledge as vaccines that protect from surrender to irrational beliefs.

• It is an undeniable fact that no matter what challenges a biological organism encounters, one way or another evolution gets around to solving them. 

• The solution to Complexity is the cultivation of Insight, nature’s elegant defense. 

11.   Bridging the Gap: Building Better Brains

• Advances in modern neuroscience hold the promise of understanding the brain enough to stave off the reoccurring cognitive threshold.

• Insight:  We know it exists, we know it is a biological phenomenon, and that unusual areas of the brain become activated when it is used to solve complex problems. We also know that it is taxing, and the mind “prepares” itself to use insight in advance- there appears to be a specific condition that facilitates it.  Insight is the brain’s special weapon against complexity.

• The anterior Superior Temporal Gyrus (aSTG) becomes active during insight. This is a part of the brain associated with processing sound and language and forming abstract associations.

• Research points to the Unconscious Mind as the source of Insight.

The Characteristics of Insight²

• The solution arrives suddenly.  It often occurs following a period of gridlock or feeling stuck.

• The problem-solver has difficulty tracing the thought process leading up to the answer.

• There is an over-whelming feeling that the answer is correct.

• The answer is correct.

• There is a sudden burst of gamma-band oscillatory activity in the anterior Superior Temporal Gyrus (aSTG).

• Insight is a demanding cognitive process.  Increased electrical activity occurs in four areas of the brain: left posterior aSTG, anterior cingulate, right posterior M/STG, and left amygdala. 

• Both the left and right hemispheres of the brain become activated.

• The brain prepares itself 300 milliseconds in advance.  The aSTG becomes excited, and the ACC begins shutting down distracting internal and external thoughts.

• Insight is extremely efficient at solving highly complex and difficult problems, allowing us to see connections that have been previously overlooked.

• Insightful solutions are unconventional, highly innovative, and far-reaching in their ramifications because they are free of supermemes.

12.   Invoking Insight: Conditions Conducive to Cognition

• The solutions to large, complex problems demand a convergence of many different areas of expertise.

• Recent research indicates that the solutions to difficult problems are superior when people work in small groups rather than individually.  Groups of four to nine, otherwise the advantage degrades.

• One of the best workouts we can give the brain is walking rapidly on uneven surfaces.  It’s the equivalent of a gym workout for the brain.

• The power of novelty- do something new, or in a new way, to stimulate your brain.  Disrupt normal patterns.

• Preparing the mind for complex problem solving offers the single greatest socioeconomic advantage possible across all fields and industries.

• There is a little understood relationship between relaxation, taking breaks, and insights.

• The brain prepares itself for insight in the milliseconds prior by shutting out external and internal distractions so that it can wander in a highly focused way and produce meaningful new associations.

• Nutrition- Processed food like low quality gas in your car tank.  Eat: 

-Food high in amino acids, fuel for your neurotransmitters- Protein. 

-Next, antioxidants like blueberries, green tea and walnuts, which stave off cognitive cell damage.  

-High quality dark chocolate is known to activate production of dopamine, which affects memory and learning, may give a needed boost for insight.

-Omega-3 fatty acids, the “brain food.”

• Cognitive fitness requires new learning to take place, so physical exercise that incorporates new sensory experiences is the best way to give both our bodies and brain a workout.

• Mood altering drugs are the enemy of insight- positive mood increases chances for insights.

• Cognition, Species, and Planet are inextricably linked.

13.   On the Threshold

• We know with absolute certainty that every organism, from ants to elephants, marches to the laws of Natural Selection.

• How did a fundamental tenet in science become synonymous with godlessness? Determinism? Liberalism? (Bobby Azarian discusses this in The Romance of Reality and points to the influence of evolutionary biologists like Stephen Jay Gould and Ernst Mayr on this point, on the movement away from teleological causality. I am sensing a return to Aristotle’s Four Causes, but that’s a story for another day).

• We have to accept the fact that there is no way for humans to progress faster than evolution will permit.

• The point at which evolution and complexity collide is the cognitive threshold, and this has been the trigger for the demise of every advanced human civilization.

• Example:  I Love Lucy, when Lucy is working on the chocolate conveyer belt.  The speed of the line begins to overwhelm her, and she tries everything, hiding chocolates and shoving them in her mouth. 

Live shot of the 2020sInsight is the key to solving the problems of complexity that threaten to overpower our cognitive threshold. 

 “So much has been destroyed I have cast my lot with those who, age after age, perversely, with no extraordinary power, reconstitute the world.”— Adrienne Rich 

1. Possibly Taylor, possibly Charles Kettering, or John Dewey.

2. Emergent Futures Lab— Iain Kerr and Jason Frasca are doing amazing work in this space, and showing that creative cognition is not just in your head, but embodied (in our bodily movements), embedded (in environments/contexts), enacted (in between relationships), and extended (to things like commonplace notebooks).