Excellent review of these stage theories, Adam! They are a useful heuristic for thinking about generational change. My favorite: when the last person who remembers the last war dies, the next war is not far away.
I'm also a fan of Charles Handy. In his wonderful books The Empty Raincoat and The Second Curve, he presents the S-curve (S for sine wave) as a paradigm for understanding the life cycle of … everything. It applies to people, families, organizations and nations. It’s a unified theory of energy/entropy, life, change and death.
His study of historical cycles tells him that the US is going to devolve into civil war. He also has some interesting thoughts on red, blue and white pilled individuals.
This is a great post. I’ve read much of Dalio, Friedman (I’m a happy subscriber)and Turchin. Turchin lost me, I wish I had your grasp of his theory. I’ve not read his last. I may buy it and try again thanks to you.
I appreciate your call to connect. Crises or no that’s a good policy. I confess to laughing about being attuned to reality. Part of me thinks that’s a recipe for insanity and the other part wonders how in the hell in the chaos we live in we can ascertain what is reality. I apologize for my cynicism.
Love the takeaways! The Stand was in my top 5 favorite books growing up and was the first one that encouraged me to start thinking about preparedness. Phenomenal piece
Excellent review of these stage theories, Adam! They are a useful heuristic for thinking about generational change. My favorite: when the last person who remembers the last war dies, the next war is not far away.
I'm also a fan of Charles Handy. In his wonderful books The Empty Raincoat and The Second Curve, he presents the S-curve (S for sine wave) as a paradigm for understanding the life cycle of … everything. It applies to people, families, organizations and nations. It’s a unified theory of energy/entropy, life, change and death.
Interesting- it looks the the panarchy loop: https://open.substack.com/pub/adamkaraoguz/p/panarchy-in-the-us
Good catch. I see the overlap.
Here is another "cycles of history" person yoy may enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/@WhatifAltHist
His study of historical cycles tells him that the US is going to devolve into civil war. He also has some interesting thoughts on red, blue and white pilled individuals.
This is a great post. I’ve read much of Dalio, Friedman (I’m a happy subscriber)and Turchin. Turchin lost me, I wish I had your grasp of his theory. I’ve not read his last. I may buy it and try again thanks to you.
I appreciate your call to connect. Crises or no that’s a good policy. I confess to laughing about being attuned to reality. Part of me thinks that’s a recipe for insanity and the other part wonders how in the hell in the chaos we live in we can ascertain what is reality. I apologize for my cynicism.
Many thanks to Kyle for restacking this post.
Love the takeaways! The Stand was in my top 5 favorite books growing up and was the first one that encouraged me to start thinking about preparedness. Phenomenal piece
Great read. History isn't linear, it's cyclical.
❤️❤️